The UK is probably in recession – and probably has been for some time, although it is hard to tell for sure because of distortions caused by all the effort to keep it afloat.
The last two months of data (for September and October) showing falling productivity, with the service sector being the most successful, coupled with falling interest rates and now falling job vacancies, suggest that demand has slacked off and productivity is falling in line with it.
If so, then this suggests that the UK has been falling into recession since at least the end of August – but This Writer believes the rot may have set in long before – but has been masked by economic shocks and government efforts to ease them, possibly going back as far as Brexit.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
We have had announcement after announcement about attempts to cool the effects of Brexit, after it became clear that increased bureaucracy around trade with the continent, plus the imposition of tariffs, meant businesses would lose profit. Those efforts are ongoing.
Then we had the Covid-19 pandemic, with huge amounts of public money injected into the economy simply to keep it ticking over while the population was in lockdown
Then we had the energy crisis, with the price of electricity and gas rising so far and fast that the government had to subsidise our payments to the fatcat privatised utility firms.
And now we have the economic “black hole”, and new Chancellor Rachel Reeves [pictured] with her efforts to re-balance the national finances – that have spooked businesses into believing they must either cut the number of employees in their workforces, cut pay, or reduce investment (stopping purchases of equipment and so on).
With so many external influences, it should be no wonder that neither businesses nor customers know whether they’re stopping, starting or coasting over a cliff.
The government says the economy will grow next year and employment will rise over the next three, according to official forecasts. But that’s not to say that things won’t get worse before they get better.
It would be entirely reasonable to believe that business will suffer for a while – especially while they accommodate the changes that the new government has imposed on them.
And that means more suffering for the rest of us.
And it won’t do any good complaining that we’ve suffered enough already. The wounds inflicted by the Tories over the last 14 years won’t heal in a day.
The fear is that the result will be “kill and cure” – with the UK’s economic woes solved at the cost of just a few thousand citizens’ lives, lost to poverty, ill-health or any number of other economy-related malaises.
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Cruel Britannia is available
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The Livingstone Presumption is available
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The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
The UK is probably in recession – and probably has been for some time
The UK is probably in recession – and probably has been for some time, although it is hard to tell for sure because of distortions caused by all the effort to keep it afloat.
The last two months of data (for September and October) showing falling productivity, with the service sector being the most successful, coupled with falling interest rates and now falling job vacancies, suggest that demand has slacked off and productivity is falling in line with it.
If so, then this suggests that the UK has been falling into recession since at least the end of August – but This Writer believes the rot may have set in long before – but has been masked by economic shocks and government efforts to ease them, possibly going back as far as Brexit.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
We have had announcement after announcement about attempts to cool the effects of Brexit, after it became clear that increased bureaucracy around trade with the continent, plus the imposition of tariffs, meant businesses would lose profit. Those efforts are ongoing.
Then we had the Covid-19 pandemic, with huge amounts of public money injected into the economy simply to keep it ticking over while the population was in lockdown
Then we had the energy crisis, with the price of electricity and gas rising so far and fast that the government had to subsidise our payments to the fatcat privatised utility firms.
And now we have the economic “black hole”, and new Chancellor Rachel Reeves [pictured] with her efforts to re-balance the national finances – that have spooked businesses into believing they must either cut the number of employees in their workforces, cut pay, or reduce investment (stopping purchases of equipment and so on).
With so many external influences, it should be no wonder that neither businesses nor customers know whether they’re stopping, starting or coasting over a cliff.
The government says the economy will grow next year and employment will rise over the next three, according to official forecasts. But that’s not to say that things won’t get worse before they get better.
It would be entirely reasonable to believe that business will suffer for a while – especially while they accommodate the changes that the new government has imposed on them.
And that means more suffering for the rest of us.
And it won’t do any good complaining that we’ve suffered enough already. The wounds inflicted by the Tories over the last 14 years won’t heal in a day.
The fear is that the result will be “kill and cure” – with the UK’s economic woes solved at the cost of just a few thousand citizens’ lives, lost to poverty, ill-health or any number of other economy-related malaises.
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (bottom right of the home page). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Follow Vox Political writer Mike Sivier on BlueSky
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
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