He has suspended US aid, causing fear – but Donald Trump’s bully-boy tactics over Ukraine should impress nobody.
Trump is upset because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy didn’t sign a deal to let the United States have hundreds of billions of pounds worth of Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals in return for, apparently, nothing.
And he’s unhappy that Mr Zelenskyy immediately attended a summit of “the willing” European leaders who have offered Ukraine the defensive capabilities that he (Trump) has not – if a peace deal can be reached.
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Mr Zelenskyy says Ukraine wants Russia to withdraw from the four regions of Ukraine it has formally annexed (even though it does not have full control); in return, Ukraine will withdraw from parts of Russia that it has invaded. And Ukraine wants Nato membership (wasn’t that the issue that prompted Russia’s invasion in the first place?) as soon as possible.
Trump doesn’t accept any of that. He says Ukraine won’t get its pre-2014 borders back and opposes Nato membership. We may assume that he is in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on that basis – which is pointless because Mr Zelenskyy will never accept peace on that basis. And he wants those minerals.
Russia wants to keep those parts of Ukraine that it has annexed, and opposes European countries sending troops to Ukraine. It is also calling for elections in Ukraine (which would be highly unusual in a time of martial law and impossible to achieve when one-fifth of Ukraine is under Russian control). He also opposes Ukrainian membership of Nato.
You can see that Trump and Putin are more or less aligned. The issue between them – if there is one – relates to the minerals.
It occurs to This Writer that Putin may have told Trump he can have the minerals anyway, if Russia rolls over all of Ukraine.
In Trump’s view, that would probably justify pulling US aid out. Otherwise, it would be a dangerous move for him because he would risk losing those minerals.
There’s also the question of whether Putin would honour an agreement to give Trump the minerals, after he has taken over Ukraine.
Mr Zelenskyy will not agree to peace on the terms that Trump and Putin are likely to offer. But if US aid is withdrawn, his military will lose the capability to defend all fronts at some point in the future – even if it is months away at the moment. We know this because of an episode in 2023-4 when US aid was withdrawn because of a political row in the US Congress; it was restored only just in time to prevent a major Russian breakthrough.
The European military promise refers only to what they’ll do if a peace deal is agreed. They already provide 60 per cent of Ukraine’s military aid – more than the United States – but this is not enough to keep Russia out of Ukraine.
So it seems to me that Trump’s move is motivated more by desperation than calculation.
He wants to bully Ukraine and Europe into falling in line with the peace plan he is working out with Russia.
It’s the only way he can be sure of getting those minerals – and that Nobel Peace Prize he seems to covet.
But we already know that Mr Zelenskyy stands up to bullies – even if Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron don’t.
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Trump’s bully-boy tactics over Ukraine should impress nobody
He has suspended US aid, causing fear – but Donald Trump’s bully-boy tactics over Ukraine should impress nobody.
Trump is upset because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy didn’t sign a deal to let the United States have hundreds of billions of pounds worth of Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals in return for, apparently, nothing.
And he’s unhappy that Mr Zelenskyy immediately attended a summit of “the willing” European leaders who have offered Ukraine the defensive capabilities that he (Trump) has not – if a peace deal can be reached.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
Mr Zelenskyy says Ukraine wants Russia to withdraw from the four regions of Ukraine it has formally annexed (even though it does not have full control); in return, Ukraine will withdraw from parts of Russia that it has invaded. And Ukraine wants Nato membership (wasn’t that the issue that prompted Russia’s invasion in the first place?) as soon as possible.
Trump doesn’t accept any of that. He says Ukraine won’t get its pre-2014 borders back and opposes Nato membership. We may assume that he is in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on that basis – which is pointless because Mr Zelenskyy will never accept peace on that basis. And he wants those minerals.
Russia wants to keep those parts of Ukraine that it has annexed, and opposes European countries sending troops to Ukraine. It is also calling for elections in Ukraine (which would be highly unusual in a time of martial law and impossible to achieve when one-fifth of Ukraine is under Russian control). He also opposes Ukrainian membership of Nato.
You can see that Trump and Putin are more or less aligned. The issue between them – if there is one – relates to the minerals.
It occurs to This Writer that Putin may have told Trump he can have the minerals anyway, if Russia rolls over all of Ukraine.
In Trump’s view, that would probably justify pulling US aid out. Otherwise, it would be a dangerous move for him because he would risk losing those minerals.
There’s also the question of whether Putin would honour an agreement to give Trump the minerals, after he has taken over Ukraine.
Mr Zelenskyy will not agree to peace on the terms that Trump and Putin are likely to offer. But if US aid is withdrawn, his military will lose the capability to defend all fronts at some point in the future – even if it is months away at the moment. We know this because of an episode in 2023-4 when US aid was withdrawn because of a political row in the US Congress; it was restored only just in time to prevent a major Russian breakthrough.
The European military promise refers only to what they’ll do if a peace deal is agreed. They already provide 60 per cent of Ukraine’s military aid – more than the United States – but this is not enough to keep Russia out of Ukraine.
So it seems to me that Trump’s move is motivated more by desperation than calculation.
He wants to bully Ukraine and Europe into falling in line with the peace plan he is working out with Russia.
It’s the only way he can be sure of getting those minerals – and that Nobel Peace Prize he seems to covet.
But we already know that Mr Zelenskyy stands up to bullies – even if Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron don’t.
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (bottom right of the home page). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Follow Vox Political writer Mike Sivier on BlueSky
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
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