Happy St David’s Day! Poll says Tories will lose all but two Welsh Parliamentary seats

Last Updated: March 1, 2023By Tags: , , , , , , ,

The ballot box: a recent opinion poll suggests that Welsh people will abandon the Conservative Party en masse at the next general election.

Happy St David’s Day, Wales!

A YouGov poll for WalesOnline has stated that the Conservatives are likely to lose all but two Parliamentary seats in Wales at the next general election.

Tragically for This Writer, the MPs set to remain are both here in Powys – in Montgomeryshire, and in my own home constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire.

What’s wrong with people here? Good question!

My best guess is that the older generation are set in their ways, while the younger voters have lost all hope for the future if it’s a choice between Rishi Sunak’s economy wreckers and Keir Starmer’s pale blue Tories.

A YouGov poll for WalesOnline, released ahead of St David’s Day, shows the Conservatives’ share of the vote has slipped to just 19%, while Labour’s share has surged from 41% in 2019 to 53% now.

Among people aged 24-50, the Tory share of the vote is just 7%.

According to the Wales Governance Centre, the YouGov poll shows that based on uniform swing and current boundaries the Conservative party would keep just two Welsh seats, the lowest number since they got no seats in the 2001 election.

The only remaining Conservative seats based on this poll would be Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire, with the Tories only managing to hold on to the former by a very narrow margin. It is technically too close to call, with the Lib Dems within a couple of percentage points but on strict number the Conservatives edge it. As this is based on uniform swing of votes and assumes no tactical voting, that scenario may well not play out in reality. The seat has changed hands recently in a by-election in August 2019 after Tory MP Chris Davies pleaded guilty to claiming false expenses. It was subsequently won by the Lib Dems but reclaimed by the Tories in the general election that December.

What a horrible choice – Conservatives or Liberal Democrats!

This Writer wonders whether this might be a moment for the Green Party to make inroads into Wales. It’s doing very well in the southwest of England!

Source: New poll shows Conservatives close to wiped out in Wales in general election – Wales Online

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