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Recovery? What recovery? For millions of us, it never started, no matter what economists told us about GDP increasing by 0.7 per cent between January and March.

Now we’ve had two months of negative growth – but wages, confidence and security have been falling for far longer.

If Rachel Reeves really wants to “put money in people’s pockets”, she’ll need to do much more than simply recite inadequate fiscal rules.

She’ll need to start an economic reset – from the bottom up.

False dawn: why the growth was always fragile

Back in May, we were told the UK had “turned a corner”.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was up – with the fastest growth in the G7 – and Chancellor Rachel Reeves was quick to claim credit.

But now that the dust has settled, and we’ve seen two straight months of contraction, it turns out that the corner we turned may have led straight into a cul-de-sac.

That “world-beating” growth in Q1 was driven by one-off surges:

• Exporters raced to beat new US tariffs.

• Businesses front-loaded investment to avoid tax hikes.

• Home-buyers rushed purchases ahead of stamp duty and mortgage changes.

None of that was sustainable — and now the economy is slumping back to reality.

If this is growth, why does it still feel like recession?

Even when GDP was rising, most people didn’t feel any better off.

• Real wages are stagnant or falling once inflation and housing costs are factored in.

• Food and energy bills remain high, and this has become “the new normal”.

• Rents continue to rise, while mortgage rates remain punishing.

• Employers in low-wage sectors are cutting hours or freezing hires, thanks to squeezed margins.

This isn’t prosperity — it’s subsistence.

Businesses are holding back – and who can blame them?

While the government insists it’s laying the groundwork for growth, many businesses say they’re still stuck in limbo.

Manufacturing is down.

Construction is down.

Retail is “very weak,” according to the Office for National Statistics.

Even companies doing well — like Hallmarq, the export-led veterinary firm — admit the UK environment is “tough” with rising costs, geopolitical instability, and fragile demand.

One manufacturer told the BBC: “We don’t know which way we’re going — 10 per cent off a margin is quite a lot… We’re holding fire.”

That’s not a recovery – it’s anxiety with a hard hat on.

As Vox Political warned back in May, the Q1 surge was driven by artificial boosts: exporters rushing to beat tariffs, consumers front-loading spending, and firms avoiding tax changes.

Here’s the piece that called it.

A ticking clock – and a ticking tax time bomb

Even the government’s own forecasters now admit it: the UK’s public finances are in a “vulnerable position”.

Why? Because Reeves – and Rishi Sunak before her – reversed spending cuts without raising enough revenue to pay for it.

That means one of two things is coming:

• More austerity, which hurts growth.

• Or higher taxes, which — if aimed wrongly — hurt households.

Mel Stride, the Tory shadow chancellor, is already blaming Labour.

But the truth is, both parties have helped create this bind by chasing growth headlines without addressing structural inequality.

“Putting money in people’s pockets” means doing more than talking

Rachel Reeves says her mission is to get more money into people’s pockets.

So here’s a challenge: prove it.

Right now, Reeves is boxed in by her own “fiscal rules” — rules that were designed to please markets, not people.

To break free, the government could:

Support low earners directly

• Boost in-work benefits and Universal Credit.

• Reverse stealth cuts to benefits and support schemes.

• Raise the tax threshold for lower earners, rather than just raising the minimum wage and hoping for the best.

Cut costs where they bite most

• Introduce temporary rent caps or controls in overheated housing markets.

• Break supermarket and energy monopolies to rein in prices.

• Offer targeted mortgage support or refinance options through state-backed lenders.

Stimulate the economy from the bottom up

• Fund infrastructure in under-served regions, not just London and the South East.

• Offer National Insurance rebates for firms hiring full-time, permanent workers.

• Restore and expand public investment in green jobs, care work, and digital industries.

Real recovery starts with real people

We can’t keep pretending that GDP growth alone means progress.

A true recovery doesn’t just increase output.

It lifts wages.

It lowers costs.

It builds confidence.

If the government wants a growing economy that people can actually feel, it needs to invest in people — not just in numbers.

Until then, the only thing growing is the gap between what we’re told — and what we’re living.

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