Article 16: after the Tories got everything they wanted from Brexit, they want to change it
This is what happens when you let stupid Tories mess around with the fundamentals of your life.
Boris Johnson is threatening to suspend parts of the Northern Ireland protocol of his own Brexit agreement because it is doing exactly what he negotiated. That’s what it means when he says he’s threatening to trigger Article 16.
That is to say, the loss of imports into Northern Ireland that has put the province into crisis is a logical result of the agreement that Johnson not only negotiated, but demanded that the public endorse in the 2019 general election and that MPs vote through after.
And look what it did to the people there. Trade is being choked off – particularly the supply of medicines, at a time when Covid-19 has restricted healthcare:
Doug Beattie has called on the UK to “activate Article 16” if the EU continues to risk “destabilising the supply of medicines” into the region.https://t.co/I0BbSPTYJv
— Belfast News Letter (@News_Letter) September 20, 2021
Article 16 of the NI Protocol says that the UK or EU may take safeguarding measures – without agreement with the other side – “if the application of the protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”:
*Article 16* (yes, that one).
Worth a read. pic.twitter.com/K7gWe9oAcj
— Colin Harvey (@cjhumanrights) September 18, 2021
Irish minister for enterprise, trade and employment Leo Varadkar is on the record as having said that, if the protocol is stopping Northern Ireland from getting medicines from the UK, the province can get them from the Irish Republic (the EU) instead. That’s diversion of trade:
On the topic of Medicine Leo Varadkar said "these medicines can instead be gotten from EU" That is proof enough to trigger Article 16 on the grounds of diversion of trade (as set forth in agreement). It's always been about diverting trade away from GB, they just don't hide it now
— OutsiderNI (@OutsiderNI) September 23, 2021
Some commentators are saying the entire NI protocol would be suspended. They are mistaken.
Article 16 makes it clear that any changes will be restricted to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. And if the UK invokes it, the EU may retaliate if its own rights and obligations are prejudiced by those changes.
So this is a realistic appraisal of the options:
On easing pressure,l on NI, the only limit to disapplication of Protocol is that which is under UK control (ie can't stop EU doing what they do)
That means – at most – full disapplication w/in NI/rUK
3/
— Simon Usherwood (@Usherwood) September 24, 2021
Borders sadly have two sides, so checks on EU side a possibility (pace GFA), plus NI would no longer be (legally) aligned w EU regulation in Protocol domains, so EU could argue products are not verifiably compliant and halt trade
6/
— Simon Usherwood (@Usherwood) September 24, 2021
This means the creation of that hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic that the NI Protocol was written to avoid – angering US President Biden and ending the prospect of a trade deal between the UK and the United States. Boris Johnson would have nobody to blame but himself.
Could it be avoided? Apparently not:
It's not a great outcome, because everyone has to wear some costs, but it's less worse than any of the other options
That was true in 2019, and it's still true now
13/
— Simon Usherwood (@Usherwood) September 24, 2021
Tl;dr of using Art.16 is that it wouldn't unambiguously help NI trade, it doesn't provide a better alternative to Protocol and it would totally ruin what's left of UK-EU relations
(Would make AUKUS row seem trifling though)
/end
— Simon Usherwood (@Usherwood) September 24, 2021
TL;DR means “too long; didn’t read” and here it implies that the people who are calling for Article 16 to be invoked haven’t actually bothered to read up on what it is and/or what its consequences will be.
So brace yourself – especially if you live in Northern Ireland.
Because of Boris Johnson’s stupidity – and the desperation of English Tory voters to “Get Brexit Done” without actually knowing what it meant – you are facing a winter of deprivation and despair.
Don’t let Johnson tell you he didn’t want it because his actions show that he did. The evidence suggests that he is simply one of the many who couldn’t be arsed to read his own agreement and still does not understand what it means.
You get what you vote for – and in 2019 the UK voted for an utter imbecile.
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The ‘Loyalists’ certainly HAVE read Article 16. Geoffrey Cox when discussing Theresa May’s deal almost gave the nod to the Tories partners DUP to restart the Troubles in order to have it applied. Officially they HAVE restarted as the paramilitary wing of DUP and their friends have all written to ‘contract out’ of the Belfast Agreement which means it has ended. This was at the time when these groups were orchestrating riots and attacking the police as well as threatening individual workers who would’ve been doing the checks on goods arriving from the UK.
The entire reason for DUP campaigning for Brexit – against the wishes of even their own voters – was to have a hard border with ROI reinstated. They were aghast when it didn’t occur but have seen Article 16 as a possibility to make this happen.
The thing is that Article 16 is actually an incentive for the Loyalist Paramilitaries to resume full on hostilities..