What a peculiar spectacle we see unfolding in Westminster!

Both Labour and the Conservatives are jostling to take credit for what is, on paper, a political milestone — a record-breaking drop in net migration to the UK.

According to the Office for National Statistics, net migration fell by almost half in 2024, dropping from 860,000 to 431,000.

Yet the question remains: is this actually something for which to claim credit?

Or is this simply a case of two bald men fighting over a comb?

A number, not necessarily a victory

At first glance, the headline seems like success.

The Tories claim it validates their clampdown on visa dependants and the tightening of post-study work routes.

Labour, meanwhile, is trumpeting its role in boosting deportations and streamlining asylum decisions.

Reform UK, ever the outrider in the race to the populist bottom, continues to fume that the numbers are still “disastrous.”

But what none of these parties are asking — or at least not publicly — is what this drop means.

Who exactly left?

Who didn’t come?

And what effect will that have on the UK’s society, economy, and public services?

The answer, according to Oxford’s Migration Observatory, is sobering: the fall was largely due to temporary spikes during unusual post-COVID years.

The migrants no longer arriving or now leaving the UK are mostly students and their families, and lower-paid care workers — groups not known for long-term drain or significant burden.

In fact, the care sector is already crying out for staff.

If the goal was economic self-harm in exchange for rhetorical victories, it may have worked.

What about the “indigenous” population?

This brings us to the heart of the political narrative being pushed.

The implication behind much of the language — particularly from the right — is that a drop in immigration somehow equals a better life for “native” Britons.

But there’s scant evidence this is true.

Fewer migrants do not automatically lead to higher wages, more housing, or shorter NHS waiting lists.

In fact, many of the migrants whose arrivals have now been curtailed were plugging vital gaps in precisely those sectors.

The long-standing myth that immigrants are an economic burden is not supported by data.

And when both major parties scramble to take credit for reducing numbers, what message are they really sending?

That migration — regardless of who, why, or how — is inherently undesirable?

Racism by another name?

There’s a thin line between immigration control and xenophobia.

When politicians trumpet falling numbers without context, they risk validating the idea that “fewer foreigners” is, in and of itself, an achievement.

This isn’t evidence-based policymaking — it’s dog-whistle politics.

To frame this as a win is to ignore the contribution of hundreds of thousands of migrants to the UK’s public services, universities, and businesses.

It also feeds a populist narrative that migrants are a problem to be solved, not people with potential, dignity, and rights.

Reform UK and the populist pressure cooker

Reform UK has built its brand on outrage — particularly about immigration.

But with numbers now falling, is that organisation’s raison d’être weakening?

Not quite. Nigel Farage has already moved the goalposts.

The new refrain is not that the Tories failed to reduce migration — but that they didn’t go far enough.

In the world of populist grievance, success is never truly success. It’s always betrayal, compromise, or not fast or harsh enough.

As long as there’s resentment to exploit, Reform will find a way to stay relevant — even if the facts no longer support the claims.

Will it last?

Finally, the sustainability question: can this drop be maintained?

The truth is, nobody really knows.

The drop in student numbers and dependents may be a one-off correction from post-COVID bulges.

Care worker visa rules have tightened, but demographic realities — an ageing population and underfunded social care system — may force policy reversals.

Moreover, none of this touches the global forces that drive migration: conflict, climate, opportunity gaps.

Nor does it engage with the UK’s international obligations on asylum. A numbers game can only go so far before reality intervenes.

Symbolism without substance

This is a story about more than immigration.

It’s a story about how our politics has become a theatre of perception over policy; narrative over nuance.

A dramatic-sounding drop in net migration is being paraded as a triumph by both main parties — while sidestepping real questions about labour shortages, international education, social cohesion, and long-term strategy.

Immigration deserves better than scapegoating and scoreboard politics.

It deserves honesty, nuance, and a recognition that migrants aren’t just numbers on a graph.

They’re human beings — and often, indispensable ones.

If this is the prize, it’s hard not to feel like it’s a comb over which two very bald men are fighting.