Boris Johnson’s ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown ignores the science YET AGAIN and the death toll could be huge

Mess: Johnson’s plan to ease lockdown is as muddled as his hair. Even with 80 per cent vaccine efficacy, half the population will still be vulnerable to infection.

Scientists have warned that Boris Johnson’s plan to end lockdown restrictions will cause a huge increase in Covid-19 hospitalisations – even in the most optimistic scenarios.

So much for “following the science”, eh?

It seems that

The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) [said] tens of thousands more people can be expected to die from Covid because vaccines will not provide complete protection against the disease, and not everyone will have the jabs.

All scenarios led to a resurgence of cases because so many vulnerable people remained unprotected, even with high vaccine coverage.

Johnson’s plan is a bespoke model that does not correspond with any of the SAGE scenarios – but its closest equivalent, scenario three, predicts a resurgence of Covid-19 in the UK around September.

At yesterday’s press briefing on the government’s plans, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, who is said to have shares in a pharmaceutical company that was working on a vaccine, warned that even with 80 per cent efficacy, half the population would still be at risk from the disease.

He said a cautious step-by-step process, with pauses of four or five weeks between each to monitor the impact, was the right way to go.

It seems strange, then, that the Johnson plan will reopen all English schools on March 8.

Scientific modellers predict that this will drive the infection rate up by between 10 and 50 per cent – negating the reductions of the current lockdown and vaccinations.

They said a limited reopening, possibly starting with primary schools, was a far better option and would allow scientists to assess the impact on infections within the community.

Johnson has ignored this good advice and intends to steamroll his easements through – as he did last year.

We all know how that turned out. Why are you letting him do it to you again?

Source: Demand from Tory MPs to scrap Covid rules ‘could bring huge death toll’ | Politics | The Guardian

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  1. Thomas Madden February 23, 2021 at 12:57 pm - Reply

    I’m no supporter of Boris Johnson, but we can’t leave the economy locked forever either.

    • Mike Sivier February 23, 2021 at 11:44 pm - Reply

      True. So you agree that he should have locked down earlier – and properly – as happened in many other countries that are now recovering well?

      Johnson is indeed the problem here. He’s the one who has damaged the UK economy.

      • Daniel Margrain February 24, 2021 at 8:43 pm - Reply

        As reported today in the mainstream press, the UK is among the tightest and publicly compliant countries in the world. Moreover, many non-lock down countries have a lower per capita Covid death rate than ours. The truth is, there is no evidence of a correlation between lock downs and reductions in Covid mortality. It’s counter-intuitive to believe otherwise which explains your cognitive dissonance.

        • Mike Sivier February 25, 2021 at 5:29 pm - Reply

          What does having a tight lockdown or compliant public have to do with anything that the article mentions?

          The lockdown has been working, despite the fact that it isn’t as strict as it should have been – and it really isn’t, no matter what you may think, for reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum such as Tory policy on air travel. That suggests that compliance with it has helped cut down contagion.

          All the scientific evidence suggests that lifting the lockdown – especially in the damn silly way Johnson is planning – will increase the contagion again.

          How about you provide some evidence – factual evidence, please – to the contrary? No whataboutery, please!

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