Should anyone be surprised that Brexit will cost more than Covid – in the long term?

This Writer’s initial reaction to Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s claim that a no-deal Brexit will cost more than Covid was:

Is that because most of the cost of Covid was due to short-term profiteering by Tory crony companies?

The cost to the UK of this nonsense is short-term, though; when the pandemic is finally under control, the profiteers won’t have an opportunity to screw any more cash out of the Treasury.

But the loss of the free trade deals the UK enjoyed as a member of the European Union will have long-term effects that may last many years:

LSE modelling estimates a reduction in GDP worth 8% over a decade compared with remaining in the EU.

Asked about the research, Bailey said economic models suggested there would be long-term consequences, as it could take a long time for the UK to adjust to a new trading relationship. “It takes a much longer period of time for the real side of the economy to adjust to the change in openness and change in the profile of trade,” he said.

Bailey was talking about the effects of a “no-deal” Brexit but be warned that even a deal will place the UK at a disadvantage.

Source: No-deal Brexit to cost more than Covid, Bank of England governor says | Politics | The Guardian

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1 thought on “Should anyone be surprised that Brexit will cost more than Covid – in the long term?

  1. Growing Flame

    A useful reminder that the economy-and our lives-will be damaged more by Brexit than by this (hopefully) short-term pandemic.

    So I was disappointed to see one of the new US government Biden appointees, who had previously described Brexit as like a dog chasing a car and then gets run over by it (pretty accurate, I thought) parrotting the Starmer line about how the Brexit vote is over and done with and we just have to move on etc.

    If this was just a short-term ploy to take the heat out of the issue , while waiting to assess the right time to consider further close co-operation with the rest of Europe, I wouldn’t mind. But I fear that Starmer, who campaigned so loudly for a second Referendum, is now abandoning us to our fate , and has NO intention of raising the issue again because he wants to be elected regardless of the policies that he supports to do so. And the US Democrats are going along with it!

    As if all the opposition to Brexit really was, as the Brexiters said all along, much exaggerated and that it won’t be so bad after all.
    The Tories are quite happy to see how damaged we will become by Brexit as it helped get them elected. Now it looks like the leadership of the UK Labour Party AND of the US Democratic Party are also prepared to accept the damage without comment.

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